Shibbir Ahmed, New York — Global food prices rose to their highest level in nearly four years in September, driven by transportation disruptions, adverse weather conditions and higher prices for several major food commodities, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Friday. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5 percent from August and 5.8 percent from a year earlier. The September reading was the highest since November 2022, according to FAO data.
FAO said disruptions affecting shipping through the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz, combined with weather-related concerns, have put additional pressure on energy, transportation and agricultural commodity markets.
“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said, citing shipping disruptions and climate-related shocks. He warned that if the pressures continue, they could eventually feed through to consumer food prices, particularly in countries dependent on imported food and energy.
Cereal prices rise sharply
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 5.1 percent from August and was 17.2 percent higher than in September 2025. Global wheat prices rose 6.3 percent during September, reaching their highest level since August 2023. FAO attributed the increase partly to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting. Global maize prices climbed 5.6 percent from August, reflecting lower-than-expected U.S. yields, reduced export availability in Brazil and continued disruptions to Black Sea trade.
Sugar prices jump
Sugar was another major contributor to the September increase. The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 6.1 percent from August amid expectations of tighter global supplies during the 2026/27 season. FAO cited weaker production prospects in Thailand, below-normal rainfall in India, strengthening El Niño conditions, heavy rainfall in Brazil’s Centre-South region and reduced sugar-beet planting in the European Union.
Vegetable oil prices also increased, with the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rising 0.9 percent, mainly because of stronger palm oil prices and concerns about dry weather affecting production in Southeast Asia. Not all food commodities increased. The FAO Meat Price Index declined 1.1 percent, while the dairy index fell slightly by 0.1 percent.
Global cereal outlook
FAO forecasts global cereal production in 2026 at 2.979 billion tonnes, down 2.1 percent from 2025 but still the second-largest harvest on record. The agency also lowered its forecast for global cereal trade in 2026/27 by 3.5 percent from the previous year’s record level, citing constraints on wheat and maize exports, particularly because of Black Sea shipping disruptions.
FAO said strengthening El Niño conditions are adding further uncertainty to agricultural production, particularly rice production in South and Southeast Asia. The latest figures underscore the sensitivity of global food markets to weather conditions, shipping disruptions and geopolitical developments affecting major agricultural trade routes.
