Fake Polling Firms Admit Fabricating US Midterm Election Results

WASHINGTON DC — Two polling firms have admitted to fabricating survey results ahead of the US midterm elections, raising concerns about the credibility of political polling and the growing threat of artificial intelligence-powered disinformation. The controversy intensified after Wedgewood Polls, a self-described US polling firm whose data had been cited by political campaigns, polling aggregators and major media outlets, acknowledged that most of its polling data had been fabricated.

The case emerged earlier this week after polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne contacted Wedgewood as part of an investigation into the authenticity of its surveys. In a statement posted on X, Wedgewood admitted that it had been experimenting with how easily a completely fabricated polling firm could gain credibility and be taken seriously. The firm’s X account has since been taken down.

The fabricated polling data reportedly covered several high-profile political races across multiple states, potentially affecting candidates, campaign strategies and public perceptions of the elections. Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow said a Wedgewood poll published in late June that placed her support in the single digits had seriously damaged her campaign. McMorrow said donations dried up, volunteers were devastated and media organisations repeatedly contacted her about withdrawing from the race.

The New York Times also acknowledged that its polling tracker had included 15 Wedgewood surveys released between June and October. The newspaper subsequently removed all of them from its database. President Donald Trump criticised the newspaper in a post on Truth Social, accusing it of publishing fabricated polling numbers and arguing that the controversy reinforced his longstanding complaints about political polling.

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr said there had been a significant increase in entirely fake polls and so-called suppression polls intended to influence the electoral process. He urged media organisations to avoid amplifying fraudulent surveys and contributing to what he described as news distortion.

The Wedgewood controversy follows a similar case involving Median Strategies, another purported polling organisation that admitted in August to fabricating results. The Los Angeles Times reported that the group described itself as a short-term social experiment.

FiftyPlusOne also announced on Thursday that it would stop collecting data from another polling firm, SoCal Strategies, after an investigation raised questions about the authenticity of its surveys. The firm could not be reached for comment, and its website and social media accounts appeared to have been taken offline.

The latest revelations have intensified concerns that increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence tools are making it easier to generate convincing but fraudulent polling data. FiftyPlusOne warned that conducting low-quality polls—or fabricating them entirely—was becoming easier.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research also cautioned that AI tools were making it more difficult to identify fraudulent polling organisations and fabricated survey results. Association president Mary Losch said fabricated data and false organisational information undermine public confidence in opinion research and election polling. She also stressed the importance of distinguishing fraudulent operations from legitimate election polling.

The growing number of polling scandals presents a challenge for voters, journalists and political campaigns as the United States approaches its midterm elections. Political polls can influence fundraising, campaign strategy, media coverage and public perceptions of a candidate’s chances. Fabricated surveys can therefore cause reputational damage and undermine confidence in the electoral process.

Experts and polling organisations are increasingly emphasising the need for stronger verification procedures, transparent methodologies and independent scrutiny of survey data. As AI technology continues to advance, distinguishing genuine public opinion research from fabricated results is likely to become an increasingly important issue in American electoral politics.