Shibbir Ahmed, NEW YORK — Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized the strategic Mayun Island at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, tightening their grip around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and raising fresh concerns over global shipping and energy supplies.

The Houthis also took control of Yemen’s Red Sea port city of Mokha on Thursday and have advanced along the coast toward strategic islands, according to Reuters and the Associated Press. The developments represent the group’s most significant territorial gains since a 2022 truce largely halted Yemen’s civil war.

Mayun Island, also known as Perim, sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. About 12% of global goods normally pass through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a potential threat to international trade.

The latest Houthi advance comes as shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz has already been severely disrupted by the wider Middle East conflict. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Red Sea route to move oil after traffic through Hormuz became heavily restricted.

The potential loss of secure access to both major maritime corridors has heightened concerns among energy traders and shipping companies. Reuters reported that Saudi crude production fell to about 6 million barrels per day in August, its lowest level in more than three decades, partly because of disruptions linked to attacks on shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb.

Oil markets have responded sharply to the growing risks. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel this week, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also crossed the $100 threshold as traders assessed the possibility of further supply disruptions.

Saudi Arabia has responded to the Houthi advance with military action. A Houthi-controlled broadcaster reported that Saudi forces carried out airstrikes on the airport in Mokha after the port city fell to the group. There were no immediate reports of casualties or significant damage.

The escalation has also raised fears of a renewed wider conflict inside Yemen. More than 46,000 people have fled their homes since the latest fighting began, according to the U.N. migration agency, while Yemen’s internationally recognized government has indicated that it intends to launch a counteroffensive to recover territory captured by the Houthis.

For international shipping, the main concern is whether the Houthis will use their new positions to further restrict commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. Shipping through the waterway had already fallen substantially after Houthi attacks on commercial vessels beginning in late 2023, prompting many shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa.

With both the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz facing serious security challenges, businesses are preparing for potentially higher transportation and energy costs. Any prolonged disruption could affect oil prices, shipping rates and the movement of goods between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The latest developments have therefore transformed the Houthi advance from a regional military development into a growing concern for global trade and energy markets.

TEHRAN — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Wednesday that it launched a missile attack against a U.S.-linked military base in Jordan, escalating tensions after American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. The latest exchange marks another sharp escalation in the six-month-old U.S.-Iran war, with the conflict increasingly threatening regional security and global energy supplies.

Iran said its missile strike targeted the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. military assets. Iranian state media reported that the operation damaged maintenance and repair facilities, aircraft deployment areas and shelters. Those damage claims could not immediately be independently verified. Jordan’s military said it intercepted 18 ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward the kingdom. No casualties were immediately reported.

The Iranian attack came after U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. The U.S. military said the crews were ordered to abandon the vessels before they were struck. The operation followed an Iranian attack targeting a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian officials had previously warned that American military bases in the region would be targeted if Washington attacked Iranian oil tankers.

Iran has also threatened to target oil tankers operating near U.S.-allied Kuwait and Bahrain. The threats have heightened fears of further disruption to commercial shipping across the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic waterway has become a major flashpoint in the conflict. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply, raising concerns about global oil and gas supplies. Reuters reported Wednesday that only six commodity vessels transited the strait on Tuesday, well below the recent average.

The escalation has also pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude approached $100 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $94 a barrel as markets assessed the risk of further supply disruptions.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that Washington will continue responding to Iranian attacks. The latest U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers were described by American officials as retaliation for attacks on U.S. naval forces.

Iranian state media also claimed that the Revolutionary Guard had attacked two U.S. destroyers with ballistic missiles. The claim had not been independently confirmed by the U.S. military and should be treated as an Iranian claim.

The latest confrontation comes as both sides remain locked in a wider struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy shipments. With Iran threatening further attacks on shipping and U.S. forces continuing operations against Iranian assets, concerns are growing that the conflict could expand further across the Middle East and place additional pressure on global energy markets.

Shibbir Ahmed, NEW YORK: Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel on Tuesday as escalating violence in the Middle East raised fresh concerns about global energy supplies. Brent crude futures climbed as high as $99.46 a barrel, the highest level since July 24, before easing slightly. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also rose sharply, reaching $94.73 a barrel, its highest level since June 8.

The latest surge came after Iran-backed Houthi forces launched attacks on several southern Saudi Arabian cities and energy facilities. The attacks injured at least 73 people and sparked fires at Saudi energy sites, adding to concerns about disruptions to oil production and exports. At around 0956 GMT, Brent was trading at about $98.39 a barrel, up 1.43%, while WTI stood at approximately $93.73, up 2.46%, according to Reuters.

Growing supply concerns

Investors are increasingly concerned that continued attacks on energy infrastructure could further tighten global oil supplies. The situation is particularly sensitive because the conflict is unfolding across the Gulf region and around critical shipping routes. Any prolonged disruption to oil production or transportation could have consequences for fuel prices, inflation and economic growth worldwide. Iran has also threatened what it described as “economic warfare” against the United States, adding another layer of uncertainty to already volatile energy markets.

Markets under pressure

The rise in oil prices is also affecting global financial markets. Higher energy costs are raising concerns about inflation and increasing pressure on central banks as they assess interest-rate policy. U.S. stock futures were lower in early trading Tuesday, while Asian markets also faced pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs.

Analysts are watching closely to see whether Brent can break above the $100-a-barrel threshold. Reuters reported that although supply disruptions are significant, alternative export routes, rising production outside OPEC and weaker demand are helping prevent prices from moving decisively above $100 for now.

For consumers and businesses, a sustained rise in crude prices could translate into higher gasoline, diesel, transportation and production costs in the weeks ahead. With fighting continuing and energy infrastructure increasingly caught in the conflict, global markets remain highly sensitive to developments across the Middle East.

Shibbir Ahmed, Washington DC: Nearly 600,000 jobs in Bangladesh could be at risk if the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict persists, according to a World Bank assessment. The warning comes as Bangladesh faces rising fuel prices, severe gas shortages, disruptions to fertilizer production and growing pressure on industries and household incomes.

The World Bank’s mid-June assessment, prepared as part of a proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project, said the conflict could significantly weaken Bangladesh’s economic recovery and slow the pace of poverty reduction.

The assessment estimates that the number of people expected to move out of poverty in 2026 could fall from around 1.7 million to about 500,000 because of the conflict. Bangladesh had already been facing rising poverty. The World Bank estimated that the number of poor people increased by about 1.4 million in 2025, as weak job creation, slow growth in labor incomes and persistent inflation reduced the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth.

Energy crisis adds to pressure

The energy sector is among the areas most severely affected. Natural gas accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s primary energy supply, while domestic gas production has fallen significantly from its 2016 peak. The country also relies heavily on the Middle East for imported energy, sourcing about 60–65% of its crude oil and 55–60% of its LNG from the region.

The conflict has disrupted LNG supplies, with five of Petrobangla’s six LNG supply contracts reportedly placed under force majeure. Spot LNG prices have risen to around $24–$28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), more than double their previous level.

Higher energy costs are also expected to put additional pressure on inflation. The World Bank assessment said that passing higher energy prices on to consumers could increase inflation by more than 0.5 percentage points, with further effects on food and non-food prices.

Fertilizer production disrupted

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is also vulnerable to the crisis. Gas shortages have forced five of the country’s six domestic urea fertilizer plants to suspend production, while international urea prices have increased by around 30%. The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices could potentially rise much further if the disruption continues, increasing production costs for farmers and putting additional pressure on food prices.

Smallholder farmers, who represent a significant share of Bangladesh’s population, could be particularly exposed to higher input costs and supply disruptions.

Industries and workers under pressure

The energy crisis is also affecting industrial activity. Factory operating hours, production and new industrial gas connections have reportedly been affected, while some businesses have faced rising operating costs.

The World Bank’s projection of nearly 600,000 jobs at risk reflects the broader economic consequences of higher energy costs, supply disruptions, weaker production and inflation. Economists have also pointed to signs of the crisis already appearing in the labor market, including factory closures, reduced working hours and job losses.

Government finances face additional strain

The crisis could also increase pressure on Bangladesh’s public finances. Higher energy subsidies could substantially increase government expenditure, potentially reducing the fiscal space available for social protection and emergency programs, according to the World Bank assessment.

The World Bank has already approved $1.1 billion in emergency financing for Bangladesh to help protect food security, support vulnerable households and businesses, and address volatility in global fertilizer and fuel markets.

Risk, not a confirmed job-loss figure

The World Bank’s figure of nearly 600,000 should be understood as a projection of potential job losses if the crisis continues, rather than a confirmed number of workers who will definitely lose their jobs.

The final impact will depend on how long the Middle East conflict lasts, global energy and fertilizer prices, supply conditions and Bangladesh’s ability to manage the economic shock. For Bangladesh, however, the warning highlights the vulnerability of an economy already struggling with inflation, weak job creation and limited fiscal space.

Source: World Bank assessment on Bangladesh’s proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project.