Shibbir Ahmed, NEW YORK — Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran raised fresh concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies and shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose above the $100 mark as investors reacted to the widening confrontation in the Middle East. The surge reflects growing fears that continued military escalation could threaten oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments.

The latest increase came amid heightened tensions following U.S. military action involving Iranian oil tankers and Iran’s subsequent missile attacks toward a U.S.-used military facility in Jordan.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a central focus of the crisis. A prolonged disruption in the waterway could have significant consequences for global oil markets because a substantial share of the world’s petroleum shipments passes through the narrow strategic corridor.

Higher crude prices are also raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. A sustained increase in energy costs could push up prices for gasoline, transportation and other goods, potentially complicating efforts by central banks to control inflation.

Financial markets have responded cautiously to the escalation. Investors are closely watching developments between Washington and Tehran for signs that the conflict could expand further or threaten critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes. The rise above $100 a barrel represents a major psychological threshold for global energy markets and underscores the economic risks posed by the widening U.S.-Iran confrontation.

Analysts say oil prices could remain volatile as long as uncertainty persists over the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of further military escalation in the region.

Shibbir Ahmed, Washington DC: Nearly 600,000 jobs in Bangladesh could be at risk if the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict persists, according to a World Bank assessment. The warning comes as Bangladesh faces rising fuel prices, severe gas shortages, disruptions to fertilizer production and growing pressure on industries and household incomes.

The World Bank’s mid-June assessment, prepared as part of a proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project, said the conflict could significantly weaken Bangladesh’s economic recovery and slow the pace of poverty reduction.

The assessment estimates that the number of people expected to move out of poverty in 2026 could fall from around 1.7 million to about 500,000 because of the conflict. Bangladesh had already been facing rising poverty. The World Bank estimated that the number of poor people increased by about 1.4 million in 2025, as weak job creation, slow growth in labor incomes and persistent inflation reduced the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth.

Energy crisis adds to pressure

The energy sector is among the areas most severely affected. Natural gas accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s primary energy supply, while domestic gas production has fallen significantly from its 2016 peak. The country also relies heavily on the Middle East for imported energy, sourcing about 60–65% of its crude oil and 55–60% of its LNG from the region.

The conflict has disrupted LNG supplies, with five of Petrobangla’s six LNG supply contracts reportedly placed under force majeure. Spot LNG prices have risen to around $24–$28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), more than double their previous level.

Higher energy costs are also expected to put additional pressure on inflation. The World Bank assessment said that passing higher energy prices on to consumers could increase inflation by more than 0.5 percentage points, with further effects on food and non-food prices.

Fertilizer production disrupted

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is also vulnerable to the crisis. Gas shortages have forced five of the country’s six domestic urea fertilizer plants to suspend production, while international urea prices have increased by around 30%. The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices could potentially rise much further if the disruption continues, increasing production costs for farmers and putting additional pressure on food prices.

Smallholder farmers, who represent a significant share of Bangladesh’s population, could be particularly exposed to higher input costs and supply disruptions.

Industries and workers under pressure

The energy crisis is also affecting industrial activity. Factory operating hours, production and new industrial gas connections have reportedly been affected, while some businesses have faced rising operating costs.

The World Bank’s projection of nearly 600,000 jobs at risk reflects the broader economic consequences of higher energy costs, supply disruptions, weaker production and inflation. Economists have also pointed to signs of the crisis already appearing in the labor market, including factory closures, reduced working hours and job losses.

Government finances face additional strain

The crisis could also increase pressure on Bangladesh’s public finances. Higher energy subsidies could substantially increase government expenditure, potentially reducing the fiscal space available for social protection and emergency programs, according to the World Bank assessment.

The World Bank has already approved $1.1 billion in emergency financing for Bangladesh to help protect food security, support vulnerable households and businesses, and address volatility in global fertilizer and fuel markets.

Risk, not a confirmed job-loss figure

The World Bank’s figure of nearly 600,000 should be understood as a projection of potential job losses if the crisis continues, rather than a confirmed number of workers who will definitely lose their jobs.

The final impact will depend on how long the Middle East conflict lasts, global energy and fertilizer prices, supply conditions and Bangladesh’s ability to manage the economic shock. For Bangladesh, however, the warning highlights the vulnerability of an economy already struggling with inflation, weak job creation and limited fiscal space.

Source: World Bank assessment on Bangladesh’s proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project.