Shibbir Ahmed, NEW YORK — The escalating war in the Middle East is threatening to deepen disruptions to global oil supplies as fresh attacks target shipping and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

A vessel was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, forcing its crew to evacuate after a fire broke out, according to the British maritime security agency UKMTO. An Iranian commercial vessel was also hit off Iran’s coast, killing one person and injuring four others, further raising concerns about the safety of commercial shipping in the region.

The latest incidents came after Saudi Arabia shut down its major East-West oil pipeline following a drone attack. The pipeline, which normally carries millions of barrels of crude per day to the Red Sea, has served as a critical alternative route while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been heavily disrupted.

Reuters reported Sunday that the pipeline outage could threaten as much as 4% of global oil supply if it is not restored within days. Saudi Arabia has not provided a detailed timeline for repairs, while traders and oil buyers have offered varying estimates for how long the disruption could last.

The supply concerns are being compounded by growing instability around another major maritime chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen have advanced along the Red Sea coast, increasing the risk of further disruption to oil and commercial shipping routes.

Global oil markets have already reacted sharply to the worsening situation. Brent crude has moved above $100 a barrel, while fuel prices have climbed as traders assess the possibility of prolonged disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Reuters reported that U.S. diesel prices have also reached record levels.

The International Energy Agency has warned that global oil supply could decline by about 5.7 million barrels per day, or 6%, in 2026 because of the continuing conflict and disruptions in the Gulf. Saudi oil production has also fallen sharply from earlier levels.

The developments have raised fears that a prolonged conflict could push energy prices even higher, increasing transportation and production costs and adding to inflationary pressures around the world.

Diplomatic efforts to ease the crisis are continuing, but negotiations involving Iran and Gulf states over safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have faced delays. Iran has indicated that reopening the waterway would require concessions from the United States.

With both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb facing heightened security risks, global energy markets are increasingly vulnerable to further attacks. Any prolonged disruption at both routes could have consequences well beyond the Middle East, affecting fuel prices, shipping costs, inflation and economic growth worldwide.

Shibbir Ahmed, New York — Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel on Friday, putting both major benchmarks on track for their strongest weekly gains in months as escalating violence in the Middle East disrupted key shipping routes and heightened concerns over global supplies.

Brent crude futures rose earlier in the session to above $108 a barrel before giving back some of those gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also traded above $100, after both benchmarks jumped more than 6% on Thursday.

Brent was last trading around $104 a barrel, while WTI fell below the $100 mark later in the session. Despite the pullback, both contracts remained sharply higher for the week. Reuters reported that Brent and WTI were on track for weekly gains of more than 8%.

The latest price moves have been driven largely by growing risks to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two critical routes for global energy supplies. Increased attacks on tankers and other shipping have raised concerns that disruptions could persist.

Iran-aligned Houthi forces also seized Yemen’s port of Mocha, according to reports, adding to concerns about shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the wider Red Sea region. At the same time, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Oil flows through the waterway have fallen sharply from levels seen before the latest escalation in fighting, putting additional pressure on already tight global supplies.

Supply concerns have also been reinforced by disruptions to energy infrastructure in the region. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude production fell to about 6 million barrels per day in August, its lowest level in roughly three decades, following attacks on energy facilities.

The disruption is also being felt in fuel markets. U.S. diesel prices have climbed to record levels, increasing costs for transportation, agriculture and other industries. Higher energy prices are also raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressure around the world.

Oil prices had already risen sharply in recent weeks as the conflict involving the United States and Iran intensified. Brent crude crossed the $100 threshold on Wednesday for the first time since July, and Thursday’s rally pushed both Brent and WTI above $100.

Markets remain focused on whether diplomatic efforts can restore safe passage through key shipping routes. Any sustained improvement in shipping conditions could ease some of the recent price pressure, while further attacks or prolonged restrictions could keep oil prices elevated.

For now, traders remain cautious as the conflict continues to threaten one of the world’s most important energy supply corridors.

Shibbir Ahmed, NEW YORK: Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel on Tuesday as escalating violence in the Middle East raised fresh concerns about global energy supplies. Brent crude futures climbed as high as $99.46 a barrel, the highest level since July 24, before easing slightly. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also rose sharply, reaching $94.73 a barrel, its highest level since June 8.

The latest surge came after Iran-backed Houthi forces launched attacks on several southern Saudi Arabian cities and energy facilities. The attacks injured at least 73 people and sparked fires at Saudi energy sites, adding to concerns about disruptions to oil production and exports. At around 0956 GMT, Brent was trading at about $98.39 a barrel, up 1.43%, while WTI stood at approximately $93.73, up 2.46%, according to Reuters.

Growing supply concerns

Investors are increasingly concerned that continued attacks on energy infrastructure could further tighten global oil supplies. The situation is particularly sensitive because the conflict is unfolding across the Gulf region and around critical shipping routes. Any prolonged disruption to oil production or transportation could have consequences for fuel prices, inflation and economic growth worldwide. Iran has also threatened what it described as “economic warfare” against the United States, adding another layer of uncertainty to already volatile energy markets.

Markets under pressure

The rise in oil prices is also affecting global financial markets. Higher energy costs are raising concerns about inflation and increasing pressure on central banks as they assess interest-rate policy. U.S. stock futures were lower in early trading Tuesday, while Asian markets also faced pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs.

Analysts are watching closely to see whether Brent can break above the $100-a-barrel threshold. Reuters reported that although supply disruptions are significant, alternative export routes, rising production outside OPEC and weaker demand are helping prevent prices from moving decisively above $100 for now.

For consumers and businesses, a sustained rise in crude prices could translate into higher gasoline, diesel, transportation and production costs in the weeks ahead. With fighting continuing and energy infrastructure increasingly caught in the conflict, global markets remain highly sensitive to developments across the Middle East.

Shibbir Ahmed, Washington DC: Nearly 600,000 jobs in Bangladesh could be at risk if the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict persists, according to a World Bank assessment. The warning comes as Bangladesh faces rising fuel prices, severe gas shortages, disruptions to fertilizer production and growing pressure on industries and household incomes.

The World Bank’s mid-June assessment, prepared as part of a proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project, said the conflict could significantly weaken Bangladesh’s economic recovery and slow the pace of poverty reduction.

The assessment estimates that the number of people expected to move out of poverty in 2026 could fall from around 1.7 million to about 500,000 because of the conflict. Bangladesh had already been facing rising poverty. The World Bank estimated that the number of poor people increased by about 1.4 million in 2025, as weak job creation, slow growth in labor incomes and persistent inflation reduced the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth.

Energy crisis adds to pressure

The energy sector is among the areas most severely affected. Natural gas accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s primary energy supply, while domestic gas production has fallen significantly from its 2016 peak. The country also relies heavily on the Middle East for imported energy, sourcing about 60–65% of its crude oil and 55–60% of its LNG from the region.

The conflict has disrupted LNG supplies, with five of Petrobangla’s six LNG supply contracts reportedly placed under force majeure. Spot LNG prices have risen to around $24–$28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), more than double their previous level.

Higher energy costs are also expected to put additional pressure on inflation. The World Bank assessment said that passing higher energy prices on to consumers could increase inflation by more than 0.5 percentage points, with further effects on food and non-food prices.

Fertilizer production disrupted

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is also vulnerable to the crisis. Gas shortages have forced five of the country’s six domestic urea fertilizer plants to suspend production, while international urea prices have increased by around 30%. The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices could potentially rise much further if the disruption continues, increasing production costs for farmers and putting additional pressure on food prices.

Smallholder farmers, who represent a significant share of Bangladesh’s population, could be particularly exposed to higher input costs and supply disruptions.

Industries and workers under pressure

The energy crisis is also affecting industrial activity. Factory operating hours, production and new industrial gas connections have reportedly been affected, while some businesses have faced rising operating costs.

The World Bank’s projection of nearly 600,000 jobs at risk reflects the broader economic consequences of higher energy costs, supply disruptions, weaker production and inflation. Economists have also pointed to signs of the crisis already appearing in the labor market, including factory closures, reduced working hours and job losses.

Government finances face additional strain

The crisis could also increase pressure on Bangladesh’s public finances. Higher energy subsidies could substantially increase government expenditure, potentially reducing the fiscal space available for social protection and emergency programs, according to the World Bank assessment.

The World Bank has already approved $1.1 billion in emergency financing for Bangladesh to help protect food security, support vulnerable households and businesses, and address volatility in global fertilizer and fuel markets.

Risk, not a confirmed job-loss figure

The World Bank’s figure of nearly 600,000 should be understood as a projection of potential job losses if the crisis continues, rather than a confirmed number of workers who will definitely lose their jobs.

The final impact will depend on how long the Middle East conflict lasts, global energy and fertilizer prices, supply conditions and Bangladesh’s ability to manage the economic shock. For Bangladesh, however, the warning highlights the vulnerability of an economy already struggling with inflation, weak job creation and limited fiscal space.

Source: World Bank assessment on Bangladesh’s proposed Contingent Emergency Response Project.