Oil Prices Surge Above $104 as Middle East Shipping Crisis Deepens

LONDON — Oil prices jumped sharply Thursday as attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about global energy supplies.

Brent crude futures rose about 4.5% to $104.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased about 4.5% to $92.28, according to Reuters. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels in more than a week.

The latest price increase reflects a combination of geopolitical and supply concerns. Shipping attacks in the Gulf have increased, while uncertainty surrounding Iran and the security of the Strait of Hormuz has made traders increasingly concerned about the reliability of energy shipments.

The Strait is particularly important because it handled shipments equivalent to approximately 20% of global oil and fuel flows before the current conflict. Any prolonged reduction in traffic could have consequences well beyond the Middle East.

The latest attacks have also increased the cost and difficulty of moving energy products. Shipping companies are reassessing routes, while producers are looking for alternative ways to move oil and fuel to international markets.

At the same time, the United States is facing an additional supply concern because Hurricane Isaias is disrupting offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Reuters reported that more than 25% of current U.S. Gulf oil production and more than 16% of natural-gas production had been shut in because of the storm as of Wednesday.

Major energy companies, including Shell and Chevron, have curtailed offshore operations as the hurricane approaches.

The International Energy Agency has also moved to accelerate the release of emergency oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies as governments respond to high fuel prices and supply disruptions.

U.S. inventory data provided another source of upward pressure on prices. Crude inventories declined more than analysts had expected, while diesel inventories also fell.

The combination of Middle East tensions, shipping disruptions and reduced U.S. offshore production has created an unusually uncertain energy market.

For consumers, sustained increases in crude prices could eventually affect gasoline, diesel, airline and transportation costs. The extent of any impact will depend on how long shipping disruptions continue and whether alternative supply routes can compensate for reduced flows through the Gulf. Markets remain particularly sensitive to developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.




U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate as Tanker Attacks Raise Risks in Strait of Hormuz

WASHINGTON DC — Tensions between the United States and Iran are intensifying as risks to commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz increase, raising fresh concerns about global energy supplies and maritime security.

Iran has warned regional countries that attempts to establish or use alternative oil-export routes could be considered hostile, according to regional officials briefed on Tehran’s position. The warnings come after a sharp increase in attacks and incidents involving commercial vessels in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters reported Thursday that tanker attacks last week reached their highest level since the current Iran war began. The increase has contributed to a significant decline in vessel traffic through the strategic waterway.

The latest reported incident involved the chemical tanker Acers, which was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar. Maritime authorities said members of the crew sustained minor injuries. The incident occurred outside the Strait itself but highlighted concerns that the maritime security threat could extend to approaches involving Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Before the current conflict, shipments equivalent to roughly 20% of global oil and fuel flows passed through the waterway. Disruptions there can therefore affect not only countries in the Middle East but also energy prices, transportation costs and consumers worldwide.

The United States is considering additional measures toward Iran, while military activity and the security situation in the region continue to evolve. Reuters reported that U.S. naval and other options are under consideration as Washington weighs its response.

Oil-producing countries in the Gulf have been seeking alternative transportation arrangements, including routes that use the Omani side of the Strait before transferring shipments farther out in the Gulf of Oman.

The crisis is also affecting shipping companies. Higher risks and insurance and logistics costs are adding pressure to international trade, while companies are adjusting routes and fees in response to the uncertain security environment.

For Americans, the immediate concern is the potential economic impact. Prolonged disruption around Hormuz could place additional pressure on crude oil, gasoline, diesel and transportation prices.

The situation remains fluid, with governments and shipping operators closely monitoring developments across the Gulf.




DHS Proposes $70,000 Fee for F-1 Students Seeking OPT Work Authorization

Shibbir Ahmed, Washington DC — The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed a new fee structure for international students seeking employment through the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, including a $70,000 fee for initial OPT participation and a $30,000 fee for subsequent participation.

Under the proposed rule, the fees would be paid by Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP)-certified schools rather than directly by F-1 students. DHS said the proposal is intended to address fraud and abuse, strengthen the integrity of the immigration system and protect U.S. workers.

The proposal would require a school to pay $70,000 when an F-1 student is initially recommended for OPT. A $30,000 fee would apply to any subsequent OPT authorization, including subsequent participation such as a STEM OPT extension.

“Optional Practical Training was never meant to be a back door into the American workforce, a subsidy for cheap labor, or a prize for those who game the system,” a DHS spokesperson said.

DHS said the proposed fees are intended to discourage the misuse of the OPT program and encourage schools to exercise greater oversight when recommending students for employment authorization.

Under current federal regulations, eligible F-1 students may participate in OPT when the employment is directly related to their major area of study. Students must receive a recommendation from their designated school official (DSO) and apply for employment authorization through U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

F-1 students may participate in OPT before completing their academic program, known as pre-completion OPT, or after completing their program, known as post-completion OPT. Eligible students can generally receive up to 12 months of OPT at each education level. Students who earn degrees in science, technology, engineering or mathematics (STEM) fields may qualify for an additional 24-month extension.

DHS said the proposed rule follows concerns identified by the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) regarding fraud and abuse involving schools, designated school officials, employers and F-1 students.

According to DHS, officials have identified schemes involving problematic worksites and so-called “pay-to-stay” arrangements, in which students allegedly maintain their immigration status through arrangements that do not reflect the intended purpose of practical training.

Under the proposed system, SEVP-certified schools would have to pay the applicable fee before their designated school officials recommend an F-1 student for OPT in the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS).

The fee would also have to be paid before the student applies for employment authorization with USCIS. DHS said USCIS would not grant employment authorization if the required fee had not been paid by the school.

The proposed fee would not be linked to a particular employer. Instead, it would apply when a school recommends an F-1 student for any type of OPT. The collected fees would be deposited into the U.S. Treasury.

The proposal comes as the Trump administration continues to pursue changes to immigration and employment programs involving international students and foreign workers. The proposed OPT fee is separate from other immigration measures and remains subject to the federal rulemaking process.

The proposed fees would represent a significant new cost for colleges and universities that recommend international students for OPT. The program is widely used by international students seeking U.S. work experience after completing their studies, particularly graduates in STEM fields.

DHS will accept public comments on the proposed rule beginning October 8 and continuing through November 9. The Paperwork Reduction Act section of the proposal will have a separate 60-day public comment period.

After the comment period ends, DHS will review the submissions and other materials received from the public. The agency may revise the proposal before issuing a final rule. The proposal is not yet a final regulation. Until DHS completes the rulemaking process and issues a final rule, the proposed $70,000 and $30,000 fees do not constitute final OPT requirements.




Guterres Calls for Permanent Ceasefire Three Years After October 7 Attacks

Shibbir Ahmed, New York — Three years after the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the killings and hostage-taking while calling for an end to the continuing suffering of both Israelis and Palestinians.

In a message marking the anniversary, Guterres said more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals were killed in the attacks, in which civilians were targeted in their homes, communities and at a music festival. Another 251 people were abducted and taken hostage in Gaza, according to the United Nations.

“Nothing can justify these atrocities,” Guterres said, recalling meetings with Israeli families whose lives were devastated by the attacks. He also cited reports of torture, sexual violence and other mistreatment of hostages, as well as deaths in captivity and during the subsequent fighting.

Guterres also highlighted the extensive Palestinian civilian toll from the war that followed. According to UN agencies, more than 70,000 Palestinians, including about 20,000 children, have been killed, while more than 100,000 have been wounded. Nearly all of Gaza’s estimated 2.1 million residents have been displaced, and large parts of the territory have been destroyed.

“Civilians continue to endure intolerable conditions,” Guterres said, adding that their suffering “demands an end – now.”

The secretary-general said the ceasefire reached in October 2025 had brought some relief but had not yet delivered lasting security, sufficient humanitarian assistance or a credible path toward recovery and peace.

He urged all parties to fulfill their commitments and proceed to the next phase of the ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 2803. He also called for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza on a large scale and for the ceasefire to become permanent.

The UN humanitarian office, OCHA, said Israeli authorities had suspended the entry of cargo into Gaza on Monday and announced another suspension for Wednesday, citing security concerns related to the anniversary.

Guterres said the anniversary should serve not only as a day of mourning but also as an opportunity to pursue a different future in which Israelis and Palestinians can live together with their rights, dignity and aspirations respected.




US supports vaccination drive to protect 3.4 million children

Ruma Bhoumik, Dhaka – The United States is supporting Bangladesh’s national measles-rubella catch-up vaccination campaign through UNICEF, with the aim of protecting 3.4 million children aged six to 59 months amid the ongoing outbreak. US Chargé d’Affaires Eric Geelan today visited the vaccination campaign at T&T Field in Korail, Banani, here.

The campaign, launched on September 26, is being supported under the United States’ America First Global Health Strategy, according to a statement attributable to US Mission Spokesperson Poornima Rai.

He was joined by State Minister for Health Dr Mohammad Abdul Muhit, Dhaka North City Corporation Administrator Md Shafiqul Islam Khan and DNCC Chief Health Officer Brigadier General Imrul Kayes Chowdhury.

UNICEF Bangladesh Chief of Communications and Advocacy Miguel Mateos Muñoz and UNICEF Bangladesh Immunization Lead Dr Riad Mahmud were also present. The campaign represents a nationwide effort to vaccinate vulnerable children against measles and rubella as Bangladesh continues to respond to the current outbreak.

The US support, channelled through UNICEF, is aimed at strengthening the government’s immunisation response and expanding vaccine coverage among children in the target age group.




DOJ Files 40 Denaturalization Cases Against Naturalized U.S. Citizens

Shibbir Ahmed, Washington DC— The U.S. Department of Justice has launched denaturalization proceedings against 40 naturalized U.S. citizens accused of serious crimes, immigration fraud and other conduct that the government says affected their eligibility for American citizenship.

The cases, filed in federal courts between Aug. 21 and Oct. 2, represent the largest number of denaturalization complaints filed during a single period under the Trump administration, according to the Justice Department.

The department said the cases include allegations involving foreign-government activity, espionage, violent crimes, sexual offenses, tax violations, fraudulent marriages and identity or immigration fraud.

The announcement is part of a broader Justice Department effort to pursue denaturalization in cases where prosecutors allege that citizenship was obtained illegally or through the concealment of material information.

Despite the wording sometimes used to describe the cases, the 40 individuals have not automatically lost their U.S. citizenship. The Justice Department has filed civil actions asking federal courts to revoke their naturalization. Under the Immigration and Nationality Act, naturalized citizenship can be revoked if the government establishes that it was illegally obtained or secured through concealment of a material fact or willful misrepresentation.

The cases remain subject to judicial proceedings. The allegations contained in the complaints are not, by themselves, final findings of wrongdoing. The Justice Department said the 40 cases involve a broad range of alleged offenses.

Among those identified by the department are individuals accused of concealing criminal histories during the naturalization process, using false identities or immigration documents, entering fraudulent marriages and failing to disclose information that prosecutors say was relevant to their eligibility for citizenship. The cases also include allegations involving serious criminal conduct.

One defendant, according to the department, is former U.S. Navy sailor Jinchao Wei, who was convicted of espionage and sentenced to more than 16 years in prison. The Justice Department is seeking his denaturalization based on allegations concerning his conduct and the information allegedly concealed during the citizenship process.

Another case involves Ping Li, whom the department alleges conspired to act as an agent of the Chinese government without notifying the U.S. attorney general. The department says Li was sentenced in 2024. Other cases involve alleged sexual offenses, money laundering, tax evasion, voluntary manslaughter and immigration-related fraud.

The complaints were filed across federal judicial districts throughout the United States. The individuals named in the cases come from numerous countries, including Mexico, Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Egypt, Nigeria, Iran, Haiti, Nepal, the Philippines, Venezuela, Ghana, Cameroon, Canada, Colombia, Cambodia, Peru, Sierra Leone and the United Kingdom. One individual’s country of origin was listed as unknown.

The Justice Department said the cases are focused on allegations that the individuals obtained naturalization through unlawful means or concealed information that could have affected their eligibility.

The latest cases follow a series of denaturalization actions announced by the Justice Department during 2026. In August, the department announced 25 denaturalization complaints involving naturalized citizens accused of offenses including attempted murder, assault and sexual crimes against children. The department said at the time that the complaints filed since Jan. 20, 2025, brought its total to 123 civil denaturalization complaints, which it described as the highest number in recorded history.

The latest 40-case filing represents a further expansion of the administration’s use of denaturalization proceedings. Attorney General Todd Blanche said the department intends to continue using the process in cases where it believes citizenship was obtained through deception or unlawful conduct.

Denaturalization is a legal process through which the government seeks to cancel the citizenship of a person who became a U.S. citizen through naturalization. It is different from deportation and does not apply to people who are U.S. citizens by birth in the same way. For a naturalized citizen, the government must pursue the matter through the courts and establish the legal grounds for revocation.

The Supreme Court has also emphasized the significance of citizenship and the government’s burden when seeking to revoke naturalization. Consequently, the filing of a complaint is the beginning of a legal proceeding, not a final decision that citizenship has been revoked.

The expansion of denaturalization proceedings has drawn national attention because citizenship is a fundamental legal status carrying important constitutional and statutory rights.

The Justice Department argues that the process is necessary when individuals allegedly obtained citizenship through fraud or by concealing serious misconduct.

Civil liberties and immigration advocates, meanwhile, have raised broader concerns about the government’s increasing use of a rarely invoked legal mechanism. Coverage of the latest filings has characterized the effort as a significant expansion of denaturalization under the Trump administration.

The cases will now proceed through the federal courts, where the government’s allegations can be contested and judges will determine whether the legal requirements for denaturalization have been met.

The 40 defendants will have an opportunity to respond to the government’s allegations in court. If the government successfully proves that an individual’s naturalization was illegally obtained or obtained through material concealment or willful misrepresentation, a federal court may revoke the person’s naturalization.

Until such proceedings are resolved, however, the filing of the cases should not be treated as a final determination that the individuals have lost their citizenship.

The Justice Department’s latest action signals that denaturalization will remain an important part of the administration’s immigration enforcement strategy, with additional cases potentially moving through federal courts in the months ahead.

 




Bangladesh seeks Airbus deliveries before 2030 as Biman moves to buy 10 aircraft

DHAKA– Civil Aviation and Tourism Minister M Rashiduzzaman Millat today stressed the need to begin deliveries of Airbus aircraft before 2030 as Bangladesh set to sign an agreement to purchase 10 aircraft for Biman Bangladesh Airlines on Wednesday.

“We are working towards signing an agreement to purchase 10 Airbus aircraft for the development of Biman Bangladesh Airlines. However, it is essential to bring forward the delivery schedule,” the minister said, emphasing that deliveries should begin before 2030.

He made the remarks when a Lufthansa delegation, led by German Ambassador to Bangladesh Rüdiger Lotz, paid a courtesy call on him at his ministry office at noon.

The meeting discussed air connectivity between Bangladesh and Germany, Biman’s development and other matters of mutual interest.

Millat said the longstanding friendly relations between the two countries provided considerable scope for expanding cooperation in civil aviation.

Describing Lufthansa as a globally renowned aviation company, he invited its investment in establishing maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities to support Bangladesh’s ambition to become an aviation hub. He said Lufthansa could also work with Biman to develop skilled aviation personnel within Bangladesh.

The minister sought Germany’s cooperation in securing the withdrawal of the European Union’s High Risk Cargo and Mail (HRCM) designation for cargo originating from Bangladesh, which has remained in place since 2017.

He said the government had taken measures to address all observations since assuming office. Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport and Osmani International Airport each achieved ratings exceeding 90 percent in recently completed security audits, he said, citing the results while seeking German support for lifting the designation.

Both sides expressed interest in deepening bilateral relations, increasing air connectivity and expanding cooperation in tourism. Millat expressed optimism that cooperation between Bangladesh and Germany would become broader and more fruitful in the coming years.

 




Mecca Pact Activated as Saudi Arabia Faces Houthi Threat

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye have agreed to immediately implement their collective-defense commitments under the Mecca Defense Alliance, marking a significant escalation in regional security cooperation. The decision was reached during an emergency meeting of the alliance’s Strategic Political and Defense Committee in Riyadh on October 5.

The three countries said they would take the necessary measures to provide agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment in Saudi Arabia. The deployment will be carried out according to previously approved arrangements and the national legislation of the member states.

The emergency meeting comes amid a sharp increase in Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabia. The alliance condemned attacks and threats against Saudi cities, civilian and economic facilities, as well as the reported attempt to target the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

The three countries have emphasized that the security of one member is connected to the collective security of all three. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026, provides a framework in which an armed attack against one member is treated as an attack against all three.

The latest agreement calls for rapid deployment of military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia. However, the exact size, composition and timing of the deployments remain subject to the respective countries’ legal and institutional procedures.

The alliance also appointed retired Pakistani Lieutenant General Noman Mahmood as its first secretary-general for a three-year term, according to the joint statement.

The activation of the pact represents a major development in the security relationship between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. It gives the three countries a formal framework for coordinated defense at a time when the Yemen conflict and Houthi attacks are creating wider regional security concerns.

For Saudi Arabia, the immediate priority is strengthening its defenses against missile and drone threats. For Pakistan and Türkiye, the agreement creates a mechanism for providing military capabilities and support to a key regional partner.

 




US Unemployment Stays Low as Job Growth Slows Before Midterms

WASHINGTON DC — The United States is heading into the November midterm elections with unemployment near historically low levels, but a weakening pace of hiring, persistent inflation and declining confidence in the economy are complicating the picture for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in September, a level generally associated with a labor market close to full employment. But the latest employment figures show an economy that is no longer generating jobs at the pace seen during the post-pandemic recovery, with employers becoming more cautious about hiring and workers losing some of the bargaining power they previously enjoyed.

Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 increase economists surveyed by Reuters had expected. Payroll growth for August was also revised downward. Despite the weak hiring figures, there has been little evidence of a broad increase in layoffs, with unemployment claims remaining near historically low levels.

The labor market’s changing dynamics are creating a more complicated economic environment ahead of the November 3 elections. While Americans who have jobs continue to support consumer spending, fewer workers are finding the rapidly rising wages and abundant employment opportunities that characterized the years immediately following the pandemic.

Inflation has further weakened the benefits of wage growth. Real disposable income growth has remained below 2%, meaning that after accounting for rising prices, many households have seen only modest increases in the amount of money available for spending and saving.

The labor supply is also facing structural pressures. An aging population and lower birth rates are limiting the growth of the workforce, while tighter immigration policies have further affected the number of workers available to employers. The labor force remains below the record level reached in late 2025, according to the Reuters analysis.

Manufacturing employment presents another challenge for the administration. Trump campaigned on expanding American manufacturing through tariffs and deregulation, but manufacturing employment has so far shown limited improvement. The sector employed about 12.6 million people, roughly 21,000 fewer than when Trump took office in January 2025, according to Reuters.

The broader economy is also facing renewed inflationary pressure. The U.S. services sector expanded in September, but activity slowed slightly and the prices paid by businesses for inputs rose to their highest level in more than four years, according to an Institute for Supply Management survey reported Monday. Higher fuel and commodity costs, along with supply-chain disruptions, are adding to concerns about inflation.

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the conflicting signals. A weaker September jobs report has reduced expectations of another interest-rate increase at the central bank’s October meeting, although persistent inflation could keep another increase on the table later in the year.

For the White House, the economic record presents both strengths and vulnerabilities. The low unemployment rate provides evidence of continued labor-market resilience, but slower hiring and elevated living costs are shaping how households experience the economy.

With voters preparing to choose members of Congress in November, the distinction between a technically strong labor market and the day-to-day economic experience of households could become increasingly important. The economy continues to expand and layoffs remain limited, but the post-pandemic period of rapid hiring and strong wage gains has clearly lost momentum.

The result is an economy entering the midterm campaign with low unemployment but fewer signs of the extraordinary labor-market strength that defined the earlier recovery. For voters and policymakers alike, the central question is increasingly whether the current stability can be maintained while inflation, energy costs and slower job creation continue to put pressure on American households.

 




UN Faces Funding and Reform Crisis as New Leader Takes Charge

Shibbir Ahmed, New York — The United Nations is approaching a critical leadership transition as it confronts mounting financial pressure, deep divisions among major powers and growing demands for reform. The organization’s next secretary-general will inherit a UN struggling to maintain its influence over some of the world’s most serious conflicts while facing questions about its ability to meet expanding humanitarian and development needs.

The transition comes as the United Nations prepares for a new secretary-general to take office on January 1, 2027. The incoming leader will succeed António Guterres, who has spent nearly a decade at the helm of the organization and has repeatedly warned that the international system is under severe strain.

In a recent assessment, The Associated Press described the UN as facing a combination of financial difficulties, geopolitical divisions and questions over its relevance. The organization continues to play a major role in humanitarian assistance and international cooperation, but its ability to resolve major conflicts has often been constrained by disagreements among powerful member states.

One of the most immediate challenges is the United Nations’ financial position. The United States, historically the organization’s largest financial contributor, has accumulated substantial unpaid assessments. According to Congressional Research Service data, U.S. unpaid assessments stood at approximately $2.04 billion for the UN regular budget and $2.25 billion for peacekeeping as of April 30, 2026.

Washington has indicated that it intends to make payments toward its outstanding obligations. Reuters reported in August that the Trump administration had notified Congress of plans for a payment of $725 million toward U.S. debt to the United Nations. The issue nevertheless remains part of a broader dispute over the cost, structure and effectiveness of the international organization.

The financial pressure has consequences beyond the UN’s headquarters in New York. United Nations agencies and programs provide assistance to millions of people affected by conflict, displacement, hunger and natural disasters. Reduced or delayed funding can force agencies to scale back operations at a time when humanitarian needs are increasing in several regions.

The organization is also under pressure to reform its internal structure. Guterres has promoted the UN80 Initiative, an effort intended to make the United Nations more efficient, reduce duplication and strengthen accountability. The initiative has included organizational restructuring and reductions in posts as the UN seeks to operate with fewer resources.

But the most difficult reforms are political rather than administrative. For years, countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America have demanded changes to the UN Security Council, arguing that its current structure does not adequately reflect the modern international system.

The Security Council’s five permanent members—the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom—retain veto power over substantive decisions. African countries in particular have called for permanent representation on the council, while other governments have pressed for broader changes to the composition of the body.

Reforming the Security Council, however, remains extremely difficult. Any major change would require agreement among member states, including the existing permanent members whose own political interests can conflict with calls for a broader distribution of power.

The UN’s difficulties have become particularly visible during major international conflicts. The organization has remained heavily involved in humanitarian operations related to wars in Gaza, Ukraine and other regions, but disagreements among major powers have frequently limited the Security Council’s ability to take decisive action.

That gap between the UN’s humanitarian responsibilities and its political limitations has become one of the central challenges facing the organization. UN agencies continue to deliver food, medical assistance and other essential services, even as political divisions make it difficult for the wider organization to establish unified responses to conflicts.

The financial challenge is being compounded by a wider decline in international assistance. The UN’s own reform reporting has warned that international assistance fell sharply between 2024 and 2025, increasing pressure on humanitarian programs and development efforts.

Despite those difficulties, the United Nations remains a central institution for international cooperation. Its agencies continue to coordinate humanitarian relief, support refugees, assist developing countries and address global issues ranging from climate change to poverty and public health.

The organization has also continued efforts to provide emergency assistance to underfunded crises. UN officials have warned that financial resources alone are not sufficient, however, and that humanitarian operations also depend on security, political access and cooperation from governments and armed groups.

For the next secretary-general, the challenge will be to balance competing demands while restoring confidence in an institution facing unprecedented political fragmentation. The new leader will have to work simultaneously with Washington, Beijing, Moscow and other major powers while maintaining relationships with the broader UN membership.

The transition therefore represents more than a change in leadership. It is a test of whether the United Nations can adapt to a rapidly changing international system while retaining the principles on which it was founded.

Guterres has argued that the world does not need a weaker United Nations. The next secretary-general will face the task of demonstrating how the organization can become more effective at a time when its members are increasingly divided over money, power and the future of international cooperation.

For an organization created after World War II to prevent conflict and promote cooperation among nations, the coming years could prove decisive. Whether the UN emerges from its current difficulties stronger or weaker will ultimately depend not only on its next leader, but on whether its member states are prepared to provide the political support and financial resources necessary for reform.