Iran Reviews US Hormuz Proposal as Oil Risks Rise

DUBAI — Iran is reviewing Washington’s response to its proposal to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz and says it will communicate its position through intermediaries once the review is complete, as stalled negotiations and escalating Middle East tensions continue to threaten global energy security. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that Tehran was still examining the US response and remained in contact with Washington through intermediaries. His remarks indicate that diplomatic channels remain open, although major disagreements over the conditions for reopening the waterway and resuming negotiations have yet to be resolved.

The diplomatic impasse comes as oil prices remain elevated amid attacks on shipping and Saudi infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets through the Gulf of Oman.

Iran submitted its proposal in mid-September as part of efforts to end the conflict and restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei said Tehran would send its response to Washington through intermediaries after completing its review. He did not provide a specific timeline for the decision.

Iran’s security leadership has argued that Washington’s response does not adequately address seven conditions Tehran has outlined for reopening the waterway and returning to negotiations.

A central disagreement concerns the order in which the two sides should address outstanding issues. Washington wants Iran’s nuclear programme included at the beginning of negotiations, while Tehran argues that reopening the strait and restoring maritime security should take priority. The disagreement has complicated diplomatic efforts despite continued exchanges of messages between the two sides.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Before the current conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passed through the waterway.

Its importance extends well beyond the Middle East. Major energy-importing economies in Asia, as well as markets in Europe, depend on uninterrupted shipments of oil and natural gas from Gulf producers. Disruptions to the route can increase shipping costs, delay deliveries and create uncertainty for refiners, energy companies and governments planning fuel supplies.

The continuing confrontation has already affected maritime traffic and energy exports. Even a partial recovery in shipping would depend on vessels being able to transit the strait safely and consistently.

Energy markets have reacted to the latest developments in the Middle East, including attacks on Saudi Arabia and incidents involving commercial shipping. Brent crude futures rose to $106.76 a barrel on October 11, while US West Texas Intermediate crude reached $93.69, according to Reuters. Prices were supported by concerns about the security of Gulf energy infrastructure and maritime routes.

Higher oil prices can increase transportation and manufacturing costs, place pressure on household fuel bills and complicate efforts by central banks to control inflation. However, prices also depend on factors beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including global demand, available inventories, production decisions and developments in other oil-producing regions. The longer maritime uncertainty persists, the more difficult it becomes for energy markets to assess the reliability of supplies from the Gulf.

Qatar and Pakistan are among the countries involved in efforts to facilitate communication between Washington and Tehran. Their diplomatic role reflects wider regional concerns about the economic and security consequences of a prolonged confrontation. A negotiated arrangement could potentially restore maritime traffic while creating a framework for addressing other outstanding disputes.

The negotiations nevertheless face substantial obstacles. The United States and Iran disagree on the sequencing of discussions, the conditions for reopening the waterway and the broader issues that should be included in a settlement. Neither side has publicly confirmed a final agreement to resolve the current impasse.

The Hormuz negotiations are unfolding alongside a separate escalation involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement. Recent attacks on Riyadh have disrupted aviation and heightened concerns about the security of civilian infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has been considering its military response, while Washington has weighed whether to become more directly involved in operations against the Houthis.

The overlapping crises are increasing pressure on regional governments to strengthen defenses and prevent further disruption to international trade. Although the Houthi conflict and the US-Iran negotiations are distinct issues, both affect regional stability and the security of important maritime routes. Iran has reiterated that dialogue should be used to resolve the dispute involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, while continuing to review Washington’s response to its Hormuz proposal.

The immediate question is whether Iran will formally respond to the US proposal and whether that response can restart substantive negotiations. A breakthrough could help restore confidence in maritime transport and reduce some of the uncertainty affecting oil markets. Failure to reach an understanding could prolong disruptions and increase pressure on governments, shipping companies and energy producers.

Even if an agreement on reopening the strait emerges, a lasting resolution would depend on implementation, reliable maritime security arrangements and progress on the wider issues dividing Washington and Tehran.

For now, Iran says its review is continuing, and no final agreement has been announced. The outcome of the negotiations could have significant consequences for Middle East security, international shipping and the stability of global energy supplies.

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